What are the chances of getting caught "Pirating"?

The chances of getting caught are almost zero. Your more likely to be sued if your uploading huge numbers of files or, running a torrent tracker service such as thepiratebay. The RIAA has basically become a toothless dog. So many of their lawsuits have ended in dismissal that the US government is no longer accepting their cases. That does not mean that the owner of the material can not pursue the case but, they must do so individually. The fact is that file sharing is still very much a legal gray area. It is not illegal for me to make a copy of music I have purchased. Nor, is it illegal for me to give you a copy. That is the basic argument for file sharing.